Three predictions, same conclusion: Trump victory on Election Day

Wednesday, October 14, 2020
Chad Groening, Billy Davis (

Trump at Orlando rally June2019A tea party leader predicts President Trump will easily win his home state of Ohio on Election Day, a key victory for re-election, and two other political observers are predicting a Trump victory despite worrisome polls.

Then-candidate Donald Trump handily won The Buckeye State 51-43 percent in 2016, scooping up 18 electoral votes on his way to the White House.

Trump defeated Clinton by approximately 446,800 votes four years ago.

Polling firm Morning Consult currently shows Trump leading Joe Biden 49-46 percent after surveying 2,283 likely voters.

According to a RealClearPolitics average of five other polls, Biden is leading by less than a percentage point among Ohio voters. The five polls used for the RCP average include one in which Trump is leading by four points and a second in which the two candidates are tied.

Speaking to OneNewsNow from his state, Tom Zawistowski of the We the People Convention says Ohio is not considered a “battleground” state that could go either way on Election Day. 

“Trump's going to win Ohio by 12 percent. So don't listen to what they're telling you,” he says.

That view is echoed by Tim Murtaugh, communications director for the Trump campaign. He told the Todd Starnes Show this week that many Trump supporters refuse to participate in voter polls.

"We know based on data we see here, internally, that the president is in a very strong position," Murtaugh told the radio show host. 

The campaign spokesman went on to predict Trump will win the battlegrounds of Arizona and Florida, and the campaign feels "super strong" and winning Pennsylvania, he said. 

McCullough: Blacks, Hispanics help Trump

According to RCP’s analysis, the country’s true battleground states are Wisconsin, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Arizona, and Pennsylvania. The RCP poll average shows Biden leading Trump by single digits in every one of them.

Averaged all together, Biden is leading Trump 49.5-44.5 percent in polling in those battleground states.

2016 election county mapCiting its own polling averages, RCP’s current Electoral Map shows President Trump with 125 secure electoral votes compared to 226 for Biden, with 187 electoral votes considered toss-ups.

Trump sailed to victory in 2016 with a final electoral count (pictured at right) of 306-232 over Clinton.

Responding to the poll numbers and Electoral College prediction, radio show host Kevin McCullough has published his own prediction that shows Trump winning 331-207 over Biden. The map shows Biden losing every state in the South, and winning only Illinois in the Midwest, along with victories on the East Coast and the West Coast.

Trump supporters in Rust BeltIn a commentary tied to his election prediction, McCullough suggests that voters’ enthusiasm for Trump, and double-digit support for Trump from blacks and Hispanics, are reliable signs the President will not just win re-election but “absolutely crush” Biden, too.  

Trump’s record of promises kept and the rebounding economy work in his favor, too, McCullough also writes.

Nolte: Some polls favor Trump

Another political observer who is warming to a Trump victory is Nick Nolte, a Breitbart writer who warned over the summer that Trump could lose to Biden. Nolte now says he is starting to believe the “shy voter” theory that suggests voter polling is inaccurate because other polls show more positive signs. 

In a Breitbart story about the presidential race, Nolte warns some polling looks worse for Trump than 2016: Biden is currently polling above 50 percent, when Clinton never jumped above 50 percent, and Biden’s lead against Trump is expanding as Election Day nears when polls normally would tighten.

Biden speaking in PennsylvaniaSo why not trust the voter polls? Nolte cites a Gallup poll in which 56 percent of registered voters said they are better off now after Trump’s first term, which is a significant view considering the economic destruction of the coronavirus pandemic.

Yet another poll, done by Pew, shows 66 percent of Republicans strongly support Trump versus 46 percent of Democrats for Biden.

“That’s a 20 point spread — which is seven points higher than the 13 point gap Hillary faced in a 2016 Washington Post poll,” Nolte writes.

Trump rally in ColoradoIn the same story, Nolte points out that Republicans are registering more new voters in “battleground” states than Democrats. He cites an NBC News story that GOP voter drives are “more robust” than Democrats in Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.

In Pennsylvania, Republicans added 135,619 voters compared to 57,985 Democrat voters, Nolte pointed out, citing the NBC News story.

According to Zawistowski, the voter polls are designed to “depress” Trump voters and hence voter turnout.

“What they didn't learn from 2016,” he says, “is you can't depress Trump voters."

This story has been updated with comments from Trump campaign spokesman Tim Murtaugh. 


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