Top Dem pollster: Trump doing much better than critics admit

Monday, July 16, 2018
Michael F. Haverluck (

Donald Trump on campaign trailA top Democratic pollster contends that President Donald Trump is doing much better than his critics are willing to admit.

“About six months ago, we all thought ‘Oh Trump, he’s going to be in the 30s, the economy, of course, was going to be in the tank,’ and in fact, none of that has happened,” Harris Poll Chairman Mark Penn recently told The Hill TV’s What America’s Thinking. “So, you really have to adjust our models and our thinking to the reality of what’s going on in the country.”

Trump’s position improving …

Having served as a Democratic aide to Hillary Clinton’s presidential and Senate campaigns between 2000 and 2008, Penn noted that unlike presidents of the past, Trump’s approval rating continues to rise as he gets further into his term.

“Penn said Trump’s approval rating trajectory is somewhat different from past presidents,” TheBlaze reported. “That’s because his approval rating has inched up as the 2018 midterm elections approach.”

In fact, Trump’s approval rating a year-and-a-half into his first year as president is slightly higher than his predecessor’s, former President Barack Obama’s.

“A Harvard CAPS/Harris poll released last month found that Trump’s approval rating stands at 47 percent, up from 45 percent in May,” TheBlaze’s Teri Webster noted.

However, another nationwide poll showed that Obama edged out the president in popularity by 5 percentage points during this state in his presidency, but what is shocking is that unlike Trump’s approval rating, Obama’s plummeted considerably 18 months after moving into the White House.

“In Gallup’s presidential tracker, Trump has a 41 percent approval rating,” Webster pointed out. “Around the same time in Barack Obama’s presidency, Obama had a 46 percent approval rating – that was a more than 20-point drop from when he entered office.”

Kavanaugh helping or hindering Trump?

Another Democratic pollster, Carly Cooperman – who serves as a partner at Schoen Consulting – believes that Trump’s recently declared Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) nominee will bring more Democrats to cast a vote in November’s midterm elections.

"This is kind of one more thing for the Democrats in terms of rallying the base, galvanizing opinion," Cooperman shared with What America's Thinking’s Joe Concha. "You're having a pro-life judge being nominated to the Supreme Court months before the midterm elections already when there's a lot of anger.”

But when more than 2,100 voters from five Trump-dominated Senate battleground states were polled by the Tarrance Group this month, it was discovered that a large majority of them want Kavanaugh confirmed, as by a margin of more than 12 to 36-percent of voters in Florida, Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota and West Virginia surveyed say Kavanaugh should be approved by their state representatives.

Tarrance Group’s T.J. Martino said that this advice to confirm Trump’s SCOTUS nominee goes across demographic lines – from gender to political preference.

“While there is a gender gap, women across all five states remain at 53 percent ‘yes,’ while fully 65 percent of men agree,” Martino pointed out from the poll results. “While the response is more polarized by partisanship, voters who identify or are registered as independents hold at 59 percent ‘yes.’ Similarly, a 55-percent majority of self-described ‘moderate’ voters agree their senator should confirm President Trump’s pick.”

This suggestion flies in the face of the advice that Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and other leading Democrats are giving their colleagues, who are rallying up a tough confirmation battle to oppose Kavanaugh.

“[V]ulnerable Senate Democrats representing Trump-dominated states would be wise to disregard the foolish SCOTUS advice being dispensed by their colleague, Dick Durbin,” Townhall’s Guy Benson insisted. “What makes Mr. Durbin’s call so striking is his frankness about the losing position his party is in, [as] he recognizes that what his party is gearing up to do – wage an all-out war on Brett Kavanaugh (on Monday Nancy Pelosi sent out a fundraising letter saying she will ‘avenge’ Barack Obama by opposing Mr. Trump’s then unannounced nominee ‘if it’s the last thing I do’) – may prove unpopular enough to cost some red-state Democratic senators their seats come November.”

Minorities warming up to Trump?

Another survey shows that ethnic minorities are feeling more optimistic about Trump – improving his reelection hopes for 2020.

“Even though President Trump receives little support from these groups, things might be going just good enough economically that he can scrape enough support from these groups so that Republicans can retain control of Congress and Trump gets re-elected in 2020,” Zogby Analytics stated in a June 27 report.

With Democrats relying on minorities, the shift could be a deciding factor that will spell trouble for the liberal party at the ballot box.

“The racial groups are vital to the Democratic Party’s elite-led raucous coalition of minorities, and any decline in their 2018 turnout could cripple Democrats’ hope of regaining power in the House,” Breitbart reported. “For example, African-Americans comprise roughly one-quarter of the Democratic Party’s turnout in presidential elections. In 2016, Trump won partly because African-American turnout fell, but also because he nudged up GOP support among Latinos and African-Americans, especially among men, [while] in November 2016, Trump got 13 percent support among black men and 4 percent support among black women, according to the 2016 exit polls.”

Polling results confirm Trump’s rising position.

“A January 2018 poll by CBS of 2,164 adults conducted in early January showed 14 percent African-American support for Trump,” Breitbart’s Neil Munro informed. “The CBS poll also showed that an additional 22 percent said: ‘I am against Trump now, but could reconsider him if he does a good job.’ The same poll showed 24 percent Hispanic support for Trump, plus 28 percent potential support. [while] the Zogby data shows that 25 percent of African-Americans – and 34 percent of African-American men – now feel ‘good’ or ‘excellent’ about the economy. The Zogby data [also] shows that 43 percent of Hispanics feel ‘good’ or ‘excellent’ about the economy.”

And here’s what men and women, blacks and Hispanics, had to say about the economy under Trump …

“Almost half of Hispanic men think the economy will be good (excellent and good combined) over the next four years; the same amount think things will not be good (fair and poor combined),” Munro added. “Nearly two in five Hispanic women think the economy will be good the next four years, while half (51 percent) think things will be not be good for the U.S. economy, [while] African American men (34 percent good and 58 percent not good) were more optimistic when it came to the economy over next four years compared to women (18 percent good and 70 percent not good).”



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