Prediction: Blackburn a likely winner in critical Senate race

A political analyst says despite what the polls are showing, conservative Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn should become the next U.S. senator from Tennessee.

The Democrats are hoping former Governor Phil Bredesen can win a Senate seat in a state that Donald Trump won by 26 points in 2016. He has been leading Blackburn in statewide polls by an average of five points according to RealClearPolitics – and even some Republicans have expressed their doubts that Blackburn can win.

President Trump went to Nashville Tuesday night to hold a rally for the Tennessee Republican. In his speech, the president took a shot at Bredesen: "Phil Bredesen, I never heard of this guy. Who is he? Who is he? He's an absolute and total tool of Chuck Schumer – and, of course, the MS-13 lover Nancy Pelosi."   

Rob Chambers, vice president of AFA Action, the political arm of the American Family Association, agrees with the president's assessment of Bredesen – and he contends the polls aren't accurate.

"To look at polling numbers and to draw some kind of conclusion would be anyone's guess," he states. "But when you look at the statistics and how people have voted in Tennessee, how they view President Trump with a 50-percent approval rating, it's pretty telling that I think the poll numbers that the Middle Tennessee State University has put out are probably a bit skewed against Blackburn."

That MTSU poll (conducted in late March) showed Bredesen with a 10-point lead on the former congresswoman, whereas two other polls (one in December, one in April) showed the Democrat with a two- to three-point lead. Chambers remains confident about Blackburn's chances.

"[She] is a very solidly conservative candidate," he offers. "She certainly fits the mold of the electorate that chose President Trump – and so I don't see her losing in the general election."

RCP staff writer Caitlin Huey-Burns writes that Trump traveling to Nashville this week is "a sign of how competitive the contest has become."