A veteran conservative activist doubts that Hillary Clinton will benefit from similar voter turnout among minorities that Barack Obama enjoyed.
Some observers consider if very unlikely, says Gary Bauer, that a "70-year-old white person with ethics problems" will inspire minority turnout like Obama did.
"So on that basis," he concludes, "the turnout on election day in November is likely to include fewer Democrats."
President Obama, meanwhile, is planning at least a dozen appearances in battleground states between now and Election Day to encourage young voters and black voters to vote for Clinton.
The latest polls at RealClearPolitics show Clinton enjoying a lead in seven of eight polls, giving her a three-point average ahead of Trump. But only one poll, which shows a tie, was done since September 11. On Sunday, Clinton collapsed as campaign staff put her in an awaiting van at a 9-11 ceremony in New York City.
That incident has dominated the news media since Sunday, which is not reflected in most of the RCP polling.
Bauer says voter turnout may also be affected by another factor: blue collar workers.
"Who in the polling," he says, "are showing an affinity toward Donald Trump and his message of 'no more bad trade deals' and controlling the country's borders."
This election, he adds, appears to be shaping up as one where every vote counts.