Analyzing GOP gubernatorial victories in VA, NJ (OneNewsNow.com)

Analyzing GOP gubernatorial victories in VA, NJ

Jim Brown - OneNewsNow - 11/4/2009 7:45:00 AM

Republican candidates for the governors' seats in both Virginia and New Jersey emerged victorious Tuesday night, handily defeating opponents in states that just one year earlier went overwhelmingly for Barack Obama and the Democrats.

Bob McDonnell (VA) A political analyst in Virginia says new Republican Governor-elect Bob McDonnell's success last night bodes well not only for his own political future, but also for Virginia and the South on the nation's political stage.

Regent University political scientist Dr. Charles Dunn says by virtue of his landslide victory last night over Democrat Creigh Deeds, McDonnell will likely become a "go-to leader" in the Republican Party in bringing the South -- and especially Virginia -- back into the Republican fold.

Dunn, dean of the Robertson School of Government at Regent, believes McDonnell could potentially become the Republican vice-presidential nominee in 2012.

"McDonnell's approachable, personal demeanor, like that of Ronald Reagan, will enable him to reach out across ideological and political divides in America to forge successful solutions to intractable problems," Dunn predicts.

Charles Dunn Dunn notes that Ronald Reagan began his 1980 campaign for the presidency in the South, which has the largest share of Electoral College votes among the nation's four principal regions. And now Bob McDonnell, who is following the "Reagan model," is emerging as a significant Southern leader on the national stage, says the political analyst.

"How did [McDonnell] win? Well, he had a pragmatic leadership model of social and economic conservatism, which follows that of Ronald Reagan. Reagan understood, as does McDonnell, that the center of gravity of power in America is slightly to the right of center. And like Reagan, the McDonnell model emphasizes unifying the conservative base of the Republican Party and then moving to the center to win and govern effectively."

Dunn says another key to McDonnell's convincing victory involved bringing many Democrats into his "formidable coalition," including African-Americans and other longtime Democratic Party supporters. Similarly, he notes, Reagan's success prompted many Democrats to switch parties during the 1980s.

Energized GOP voter base
There was another major GOP victory on Tuesday. A political scientist and pollster in New Jersey says newly elected Republican Governor Chris Christie tapped into an energized GOP voter base and a general sense of malaise in the Garden State to defeat incumbent Democratic Governor John Corzine.

Chris Christie (NJ Republican) The billionaire Corzine heavily outspent Christie during the campaign, and even brought in Democratic Party heavyweights Barack Obama and Bill Clinton to campaign for him, but it was all for naught.

David Redlawsk, director of the Rutgers Eagleton poll and professor of political science, says Christie's win reflects the general dissatisfaction that New Jersey voters have with the economy and high taxes in their state. (Listen to audio report)

"This really turns on local issues in the state. It really turns on energized Republican voters," Redlawsk observes. "But they said [during] exit polls [that] this isn't about Obama as much as it's simply about wanting change in this state.

"Having said that," he continues, "Obama has certainly -- by coming in as visibly as he has and as often as he has -- turned it into something of a referendum on him in any case."

Redlawsk remarks that he was struck by the fact that the "vaunted Democratic get-out-the-vote machine" was overcome by the Republicans -- something unusual in New Jersey.